Beyond the Scoreboard: A Decade of NBA Competitiveness

In the dynamic world of professional basketball, team performance is often measured by more than just the number of wins and losses. To delve deeper into the intricacies of NBA competitiveness over the past decade, I embarked on a data project that involved a comprehensive analysis of team statistics. By leveraging key metrics such as win/loss percentage, net rating, and the four factors, I aimed to create numerical scores that could effectively rank and compare NBA teams across different seasons.

Unveiling the Metrics

*NOTE: Measures with an asterisk are the ones I created.

Win/Loss Percentage:

The foundation of any team's performance analysis lies in its win/loss record. However, to truly understand competitiveness, we need to go beyond the surface and consider additional factors.

Net Rating:

Net Rating, the difference between a team's offensive and defensive ratings, provides a more holistic view of overall efficiency. A positive Net Rating signifies a team's ability to outscore its opponents consistently.

Four Factors:

Breaking down the game into four fundamental factors—shooting efficiency, turnover rate, rebounding, and free throw rate—provides valuable insights into a team's playing style and effectiveness on both ends of the court.  Dean Oliver’s Four Factors are an approximate measure of what it takes for basketball team’s to win games. These are the core values in calculating Performance Score.

Creating Performance Scores:

To quantify a team's offensive and defensive prowess, I devised Offensive Performance Score and Defensive Performance Score based on the Four Factors. These scores serve as a nuanced representation of a team's strengths and weaknesses, beyond simple win-loss statistics.

*Offensive Performance Score (OP):

A measure of a team’s offensive performance using the offense-focused Four Factors.

OP = (eFG% 40%) + ((1-TOV%) 25%) + (ORB% 20%) + ((FT/FGA) 15%)

*Defensive Performance Score (DP):

A measure of a team’s defensive performance using the defense-focused Four Factors.

DP = ((1 - eFG%) 40%) + ((TOV%) 25%) + (DRB% 20%) + ((1 - (FT/FGA)) 15%)

*Performance Score (PS):

The sum of Offensive and Defensive Performance Scores yielded a total Performance Score, offering a comprehensive snapshot of a team's overall capabilities on the court.

PS = OP + DP

*Team Score (TS):

To further refine the ranking, I introduced the Team Score, combining the Total Performance Score with Net Rating and Win Percentage. This multidimensional approach ensures a more accurate representation of a team’s overall production for a given season.

TS = ( Net Rating + ( Win % 10 ) + PS ) 10

Generally speaking:

• A Team Score between 320 - 350 is DECENT.

• A Team Score between 350 - 420 is GOOD.

• A Team Score above 420 is EXCEPTIONAL.

*Competitive Score (CS):

A measure of how competitive a given team is based on that team’s postseason performance. Competitive score is based on the number of wins a team gains, opponent strength, and number of games played.

CS =   [ (# of wins * opponent TS) + (# of wins * opponent TS) +... ]    /    # of games played

The main focus behind this metric is to determine and compare the degree of competitiveness across teams.

In the ever-evolving landscape of the NBA, measuring competitiveness requires a nuanced approach. By employing a combination of traditional and advanced metrics, this decade-long analysis provides a comprehensive understanding of how teams have fared beyond the win-loss column. The Team Score, derived from Performance Scores, Net Rating, and Win Percentage, offers a refined perspective on the ebb and flow of NBA competitiveness, using a team's production during the regular season to determine a sort of "team strength", which is then used when finding the Competitive Score for a given team. As we continue to witness the evolution of basketball, these numerical insights serve as a valuable tool for fans, analysts, and teams alike in unraveling the intricate tapestry of NBA excellence.

Visualizations

See it for yourself! Use the different dashboards below to interact with the data and find out which teams were more or less competitive. Just for fun, I've also included a brief list of all the insights I've found from this project. Some are fairly obvious but a lot are as incredible as they are subtle.

NOTE: Visualizations are not accessible on mobile devices.

Compare Regular Season Metrics Across Teams

Compare the regular season metrics of any NBA team you choose.

Compare Regular Season Metrics Across Seasons

Compare regular season metrics for all NBA teams across any season you choose.

Compare Playoffs Metrics Across Teams (CS Ranked)

Compare Playoffs metrics for any NBA team and season you choose. Sorted by Competitive Score.

Compare Playoffs Metrics Across Teams (TS Ranked)

Compare Playoffs metrics for any NBA team and season you choose. Sorted by Team Score.

Compare Playoffs Metrics Across Seasons

Compare the Playoff metrics of all NBA teams across any season you choose.

Compare Playoffs Depth Across Seasons

Compare Playoff Depth of all NBA teams across any season you choose.

Insights

For reference (generally speaking) :

• A Team Score between 320 - 350 is DECENT.

• A Team Score between 350 - 420 is GOOD.

• A Team Score above 420 is EXCEPTIONAL.

A Competitiveness Score over 200 is above average.

A Competitiveness Score near and above 250 is incredibly competitive.

2013

The 2013 Thunder had the highest Team Score (482.84) of that year, but they only had a CS of 188.13 (6th in 2013) for the 2013 playoffs. They didn’t even crack the 200-mark.

2014

Surprisingly, the 2014 San Antonio Spurs (288.90 CS) were a MUCH better playoff performing team than the 2014 Heat (239.01 CS) they played against with a difference in CS of 49.89 points. This is one of the largest point differentials I’ve noticed between the 1st and 2nd ranked teams in CS for a given playoffs.

2015

The 2015 San Antonio Spurs had the 2nd highest Team Score (432.71) for that year. However, they ended up placing 8th in Competitive Score for that same year with a CS of just 184.63.

2016

Remember the 2016 Golden State Warriors? It's fine if you don't. They're most notable for their record-breaking 73 and 9 regular season. You'd think they'd have the highest Team Score in 2016 by a landslide at 495.31. But nope, they're 2nd to the San Antonio Spurs with a TS of 497.25. It's worth noting that both of these scores are the top of the list of teams with the highest Team Scores in the last decade.

2017

The 2017 Warriors made one of the CRAZIEST playoff runs with an insane Competitive Score of 372.39! They skunked EACH of their opponents in the FIRST THREE ROUNDS! Once they got to the finals, they only lost one game to the Cavaliers (276.15 CS; 2nd in 2017). This is also one of the absolute largest gaps in CS as well with a point differential of 96.24. Bruh. They not only exceeded the 300-mark, but they nearly broke the 400-mark…

2018

The 2018 Toronto Raptors had the 2ne highest Team Score of the year with 450.11. Despite such an impressive TS, they finished the postseason with a CS of just 142.90 (11th in 2018).

2019

The 2019 Raptors (270.91 CS) actually had one of the less competitive playoff runs in the last decade. This is due to the fact that they often had difficulty against their matchups, resulting in a total of 24 postseason games played. 

2020

A lot of controversy exists surrounding the results of this particular season due to the pandemic. The 2020 Los Angeles Lakers won the chip with a CS of 278.62 (2nd in CS). But the team with the highest CS that year was actually the Miami Heat with a CS of 281.44. So it's definitely fair to say that this result was somewhat questionable.

2021

The 2021 Utah Jazz had one of the highest Team Scores of the decade with 477.29 (7th between 2013-2022). But they didn't even crack the Top 5 in Competitiveness Score for 2021 with a CS of 211.70.

2022

The 2022 Memphis Grizzlies had the highest Team Score of that year with 463.67. But Golden State ended up with the chip at just 419.75 TS (5th in 2022). Another interesting insight for the Warriors is that in the list of Top 5 Most Competitive Teams, they appear 3 times at ranks 1, 3, and 4!!!

Conclusion

This data project has not only quantified the essence of NBA competitiveness but has also underscored the importance of a multifaceted approach to analysis. While wins and losses tell part of the story, the Performance Score, amalgamating Offensive and Defensive Performance Scores with Net Rating and Win Percentage, provides a more nuanced narrative. It's a reminder that greatness on the court isn't a singular achievement but a symphony of skills, strategies, and statistical prowess.

Through analysis, we gain a deeper appreciation for the ever-evolving nature of the game. The Competitve & Team Scores become a compass, guiding us through the changing tides of competition, offering a comprehensive view that transcends the limitations of conventional metrics.

In the realm of professional basketball, where every dribble, pass, and shot counts, understanding the dynamics beneath the surface is crucial. The beauty of the game lies not just in the athleticism of the players but in the intricate patterns woven by the numbers. The game is more than a spectacle; it's a living, breathing data set that tells a story, and we've only scratched the surface of its statistical narrative.